The European Emission Trading Systems, Ets and Ets2, are expected to significantly increase costs, with shipping facing a rise of about 50% and heavy road transport seeing an increase of just under 10%. In this context, LNG and bio-LNG emerge as promising solutions to mitigate the costs associated with the energy transition. The shipping sector is particularly poised to benefit from LNG due to its wide penetration margin and limited technological alternatives for decarbonization.
Projections indicate that the rising price of Ets quotas and the introduction of Ets2 will lead to substantial additional annual costs: between EUR 700 million and EUR 1.4 billion for the shipping sector, and between EUR 4 billion and EUR 15 billion for heavy road transport in Italy by 2030. In shipping, the total cost of ownership (TCO) could increase by up to 50%, with an even greater impact when combined with FuelEu maritime regulations.
For heavy road transport, Ets2, effective from 2027/2028, is expected to raise TCO by less than 10%, making biogenic solutions more attractive. Additionally, in the off-grid heat generator industry, Ets2 could increase TCO by 30-40%. Across all three sectors, LNG and its bio variant present themselves as economically viable alternatives, offering both cost-effectiveness and emission reductions. Matteo Cimenti, president of Assogasliquidi, highlights their role in maintaining economic competitiveness and easing the regulatory burden on companies and consumers.
