Three partner categories — distributors, specialist AI partners and large VARs — are making hay from the current AI boom, Omdia Chief Analyst Alastair Edwards said at last week’s Canalys Forums EMEA. Omdia forecasts the top 18 technology vendors across hardware, software and services to grow 35% to $3.2tn in 2026, yet Edwards noted that over half of channel partners surveyed in Europe expect revenue to decline or remain flat in Q3.
AI partners: distributors dazzle, specialists sparkle
Edwards said distributors are “coming into their own” in the current complex pricing and supply environment, pointing to TD Synnex’s 37.7% revenue growth in its latest quarter. He argued distributors are playing a “critical role” in creating availability and supply and in bankrolling “massive” AI datacentre projects that are beyond the financing power of the average reseller.
Specialist partners form a second category benefiting from the AI backdrop. “The more specialised the partner, the more successful they’ll be – particularly in AI, in terms of building the architectural and services piece around that, but also security, networking and datacentre,” Edwards said.
Victorious global VARs
Canalys founder Steve Brazier, speaking immediately before Edwards, singled out European VARs Computacenter, Softcat and Atea as three “standout” performers for the channel this year. Brazier also commented that “The money in AI today for the channel is in building the datacentres, not in developing AI services,” a remark that sparked pushback from other analysts on the day.
Edwards agreed with Brazier to the extent that the “largest VARs” are “outperforming” by capturing the biggest infrastructure and datacentre deals. “What defines success for datacentre partners is deep levels of technical expertise, configuration capability and employment skills – and those who are doing this at the global level are the ones that are winning,” he said. Edwards linked this trend to Softcat’s $1.05bn acquisition of GDT, Computacenter’s string of North American purchases, and the recent European expansion of US VAR AHEAD.
Glum GSIs and SMB channels
By contrast, Edwards said SMB channels and global systems integrators are under “more pressure” right now. Omdia Research Director Peter Bryant, in his keynote the following day, said investor patience with GSIs has “run out” after a “collapse” in their valuations over the last 12 months. “I think, clearly, the lessons of the rise of the cloud era that everyone anticipated being learned in this new era of AI haven’t been learned at all,” Bryant said.
Channel outlook: partners to shape next inflection points
Edwards offered “good news” for the channel looking ahead, stressing several imminent “industry inflection points” that will depend on partners. He cited rising geopolitical tensions reinforcing demand for sovereign IT and defence-related IT spend, the ongoing supply and pricing crisis, the acceleration of regulation, and technology investments triggered by extreme weather. “All of these things are contributing to both the challenges that your customers are facing, but also the opportunities that lie ahead,” he said, adding that a new growth driver awaits “for those of you who are prepared and pivot towards this growth opportunity.”
