At the recent Cerebral Valley AI Conference, attendees were asked to identify which billion-dollar AI startup they would bet against. The informal survey, led by journalist Eric Newcomer, revealed that the AI search startup Perplexity was seen as the most likely to falter, followed by OpenAI. This reflects growing skepticism among insiders about the stability of some of the biggest players in the AI industry, despite the influx of investment.
Perplexity, aiming to challenge Google with its AI search browser, has been rapidly raising funds, with valuations soaring from $14 billion to $50 billion. This has led some to label it as emblematic of a potential AI bubble. In response to the survey, Perplexity’s spokesperson, Jesse Dwyer, humorously remarked on the judgmental nature of the conference.
OpenAI’s second-place ranking was unexpected given its prominence in the AI sector. However, its increasing valuation and significant infrastructure spending have raised concerns among investors. CEO Sam Altman recently defended the company’s valuation, asserting its financial commitments align with its revenue potential.
Despite these concerns, both Perplexity and OpenAI were also recognized as companies worth betting on in another survey question. Anthropic, reportedly seeking a valuation of $350 billion, topped the list of companies attendees would invest in.
The consensus at the conference was that the AI industry is experiencing a bubble, a natural occurrence in technology cycles. Experts like Kleiner Perkins’ Ilya Fushman and solo VC Elad Gil emphasized the potential for a few companies to emerge as major players, akin to the aftermath of the late 1990s dotcom bust. The challenge remains to identify which startups will endure and thrive in the evolving AI landscape.
