KeyBanc Capital Markets warned that Apple’s September 9 iPhone announcement could become a negative catalyst for the stock, saying the event may prompt investors to weigh pricing decisions against the impact of higher costs on demand and margins.
iPhone 18 pricing and volumes
In a research note, KeyBanc said Apple faces a choice: raise prices broadly to offset gross margin pressure—which could hurt unit volumes and trigger ‘sticker shock’—or raise prices more selectively. The firm modeled total iPhone 18 lineup builds at around 80 million units across the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal 2027, down from roughly 91 million units a year earlier. KeyBanc attributed most of the decline to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model in this part of the product cycle, and said higher pricing and a richer product mix are expected to partially offset the lower volumes.
KeyBanc is expecting a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro, bringing it to $1,249, and a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, bringing it to $1,399. The firm also said the foldable ‘iPhone Ultra’ is expected to start at $2,199.
Market impact and valuation
The firm maintained a ‘Underweight’ rating on Apple and a $250 price target, versus a share price of $324.96 at the time of publication. KeyBanc also pointed to a historical pattern of Apple shares weakening around iPhone announcements, noting the stock averaged a 0.72% decline on announcement day over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later. Apple’s ‘Surprise and shine’ event is scheduled to commence at 10 a.m. Pacific time on Wednesday, September 9.
